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Viral Opinion Poll Graphics Predicting AAP's Victory In 2022 Gujarat Elections Are False!
Gujarat, 26 Oct 2022 11:13 AM GMT
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We found that the set of viral images is morphed visuals of opinion polls by several news channels. None of the viral images are visuals from opinion polls on the upcoming Gujarat Assembly Elections published by news channels.
A set of images showing opinion polls is being shared with the claim that they predict a victory for the Aam Aadmi Party in the upcoming 2022 Gujarat Elections.
AAP is gearing up for the Gujarat Assembly Elections to be held in December 2022 to elect 182 members of the Gujarat Legislative Assembly. On October 20, 2022, AAP released its sixth list of candidates consisting of 73 candidates so far.
Claim:
The set of images shows graphics for opinion polls conducted by TV9, India TV, India Today, News 24, and TV9 Bharatvarsh. Out of a total of 182 assembly seats, the purported opinion polls allot 93-99 seats to AAP, 64-69 seats to BJP, 7-13 seats to Congress and up to 4 seats to Independent parties. All the opinion polls predict a clear victory for AAP.
The images are shared with the claim, "Kejriwal and only Kejriwal is dominating the cities, villages, and towns of Gujarat to the national news channels of the country."
It is being widely shared on social media with a similar claim.
Fact Check:
The Logical Indian fact check team verified the viral claim and found it to be false. Viral graphics are morphed.
TV9 Bharatvarsh:
With regards to TV9 Bharatvarsh, two viral graphics are being circulated with a different set of numbers predicting AAP's victory. One graphic provides the following numbers: AAP: 93-97, BJP: 64-68, and Congress: 9-13, while the other graphic shows a different set of numbers predicting the following: AAP - 95-99, BJP 64-68 and Congress 8-12.
It is unlikely that a news channel posts two different sets of numbers for the same election's opinion poll. On observing the graphic closely, we noticed that the image used for the Others category of voters is not properly aligned with the other candidates. These two details led us to conclude that the opinion poll purportedly conducted by TV9 Bharatvarsh is morphed.
Fact-Checking website Boomlive spoke to a TV9 Network representative who called the viral graphics fake. He said that TV9 Network did not release any such opinion poll on the upcoming Gujarat elections. Neither has any survey been conducted by TV9 Bharatvarsh or TV9 Gujarati so far.
News 24:
The alleged morphed News24 graphic shows an opinion poll predicting that BJP would secure 65-69 seats, AAP would get 95-99 seats, and Congress would secure 7-11 seats out of 182 seats.
We did not come across any such opinion poll by News24 with this set of numbers. However, we did come across a Twitter poll by the news channel on Twitter.
On October 17, 2022, News24 asked netizens about which political party is likely to form a government in the upcoming Gujarat assembly elections. Out of the 1,41,259 Twitter votes, 34.3% of netizens selected AAP, 33.6% chose Congress, and 27.3% selected BJP.
India TV:
We conducted a keyword search with relevant terms such as 'Gujarat elections.' We came across a video report by India TV published on July 30, 2022.
The description states, "Political parties have intensified their activity. But what if there are assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan today? Watch India TV-Matterize's latest survey on Assembly elections in 11 states of the country."
As per the survey, which held that if the elections were held on that day, BJP would secure 108 seats, Congress would secure 55 seats, and AAP would win 16 seats.
We also conducted a reverse image search on the viral image purported to be the opinion poll by India TV. We found a report by India TV published on January 17, 2022.
The opinion poll was on the Purvanchal region and was conducted in the lead up to the February 2022 Uttar Pradesh elections. Comparing the opinion poll in the thumbnail and the viral image, we noticed several similarities. The template of the poll matches the viral graphic.
India Today:
The viral graphic predicted that AAP would get 94-98 seats, BJP would secure 67-71 seats, and Congress would win 7-11 seats out of 182 seats. We couldn't find any such poll published by India Today.
We noticed the logo of AxisMyIndia in the top left corner of the viral image. We then conducted a keyword search and found a tweet by AxisMyIndia issuing a clarification that the polling agency and India Today Group have not released any opinion poll predictions for the Gujarat Assembly elections 2022.
Conclusion:
In our Fact Check, we found that the set of viral images is morphed visuals of opinion polls by several news channels. None of the viral images are visuals from opinion polls on the upcoming Gujarat Assembly Elections published by news channels. Thus, we can conclude that the viral images are false.
If you have any news that you believe needs to be fact-checked, please email us at factcheck@thelogicalindian.com or WhatsApp at 6364000343.
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