Over 11 Million People In India Expected To Be Living With Dementia By 2050: Report

The number of individuals with dementia is expected to increase worldwide, given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for the disorder.

According to a study published in the Lancet Public Health, the number of people aged 40 and above living with dementia globally is expected to almost triple from an estimated 57 million in 2019 to 153 million in 2050, primarily due to population growth and ageing people.

The study aimed to improve previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors.

Dementia manifests as a set of related symptoms, which usually surface when a disease or injury damages the brain. The symptoms include progressive impairments in memory, behaviour, and thinking, which negatively impact functioning and carrying out routine work. Aside from memory impairment and disruption in thought patterns, the most common symptoms include emotional issues, difficulties with speaking, and less motivation.

Number Of Patients Increased By 197 Per Cent

The study added that the number of people with dementia will increase by 197 per cent between 2019 and 2050 in India.

While 38,43,118 cases were recorded in 2019, the number is expected to touch 1,14,22,692 in 2050. "We found increases in every country, and in India, we estimate that the number of people with dementia will increase by 197% between 2019 and 2050. These increases are due predominantly to population ageing and population growth, but trends in the prevalence of risk factors for dementia, like smoking, obesity, and high blood sugar, are also expected to have an effect," lead author of the study Dr Emma Nichols from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, USA, told The Indian Express.

The number of persons affected by dementia globally was estimated to have increased by 117 per cent (95% uncertainty interval between 1990 and 2016), mainly due to population ageing.

Demographic analyses suggest that these patterns are driven by decreases in fertility coupled with a rise in life expectancy, which lead to significant changes in the population's age structure (more considerable numbers of people at the elder ages than was the case historically). These changes, along with largely stable age-specific prevalence estimates and population growth, lead to significant increases in the number of persons affected by dementia. Given that these demographic trends are expected to continue, the number of people with dementia will continue to rise.

The Global Burden of Disease study, the first-of-its-kind providing forecasting estimates for 195 countries worldwide, stated that dementia cases would rise in every country, with the minor increases estimated in the high-income Asia Pacific (53%) and western Europe (74%). The enormous growth is predicted in north Africa and the Middle East (367%) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357%). Experts stated that improved access to education could lead to six million fewer cases of dementia worldwide by 2050.

Seventh Leading Cause Of Death Globally

Currently, dementia is the seventh leading cause of death globally and one of the significant causes of disability and dependency among older adults worldwide—with global costs in 2019 estimated at over one trillion US dollars. Although dementia mainly affects older adults, it is not an inevitable consequence of ageing. The study suggested that up to 40 per cent of dementia cases could be prevented or delayed if exposure to 12 known risk factors were eliminated—low education, hearing impairment, high blood pressure, smoking, depression, midlife obesity, physical inactivity, diabetes, social isolation, excessive alcohol consumption, head injury, and air pollution.

Addressing these factors through public health interventions is a pathway towards reducing disease prevalence, and future changes in modifiable risk factors might influence the trajectory of trends in age-specific prevalence. Studies have hypothesised that education, the prevalence and treatment of cardiovascular disease might be vital in explaining past and future trends in dementia prevalence. Therefore, incorporating the potential effect of changes in risk factors should be an essential component of any forecast of dementia prevalence.

The study included the three risk factors (high body-mass index [BMI], high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) for which sufficient evidence exists to merit inclusion as risk factors for dementia in GBD 2019. However, many other risk factors have also been proposed for the disorder, and the researchers tested the association between dementia prevalence and risk factor prevalence for other risks.

Also Read: 'Nijaat' Campaign In Chhattisgarh's Korea Rids Addicts Of Drugs, Alcohol Within 6 Months