A Detailed Analysis Of Economic Disruptions To Education In The Next 3 Years, From 2022 To 2025

The world is just recovering from COVID-19. Recovering is still a very dubious word, as though a large number of the world's population is vaccinated, the pandemic has not really gone away. It's still lurking in the shadows and, like the proverbial bogeyman, continues to threaten countries and economies at intermittent intervals. The recovery of the world economies, which looked positive and on the upswing after the pandemic, is derailing due to an agglomeration of problems.

The first significant problem is the inability of most authorities to deal with the aftermath of issues that have come about due to the pandemic, from economic, business, social and political issues. While a lot of this is due to the sheer magnitude of the problems, the reality is that most of them have cropped up almost simultaneously and are genuinely difficult to address in an everyday world.

Imagine doing it in a post-pandemic world with governing authorities with a dearth of talent. As a solution, most countries have retreated to deal with their own problems and have left the others to fend for themselves.

Unfortunately, the world in the last 2 decades has become highly connected, so this has just exacerbated the issues tenfold and not really provided lasting solutions to the world's economies.

The second major problem is the quixotic Ukraine war, which does not seem to rhyme or reason and has just pushed up oil prices and grain prices and moved Europe and the UK into the recession they were trying to avoid detriment of all.

Education As It Is Today

What has all this to do with education? Everything! In the last few decades, education, from both the providers and students, has moved its axis from one of learning to one of returns. To be fair, some genuinely believe in learning for learning's sake. However, the vast majority have looked at education as either a business or a means to higher returns in terms of careers, salaries, or job hopping for higher benefits. This has led to an enormous generation of educational institutes and companies catering to the growing demand.

The latest avatar of education that grew during the pandemic was online, which became the hottest thing since sliced bread. In the run-up to the end of the pandemic, most online companies and institutes have moved from being the hottest thing since sliced bread to toast! There is a resurgence of offline education, and a large number of education Nostradamus has no hesitation in proclaiming the end of online and the complete return of offline.

The New Reality

Unfortunately, everyone is missing the Trees from the Woods. Offline, online, and respectability or name of the institution are all in jeopardy. The rationale for a student for education has not changed, and what has changed is the result.

With the world moving into a recession, the increase in the myriad of problems doesn't seem to have a solution over the next few years, and the primary effect will be on the economies.

For a student, education is not about jobs but about Return on Investment (ROI). If a student is willing to pay fees of 50,000 dollars or 10 lakhs to a good institute, it's because he expects a job that will pay him at least as much in the first few years and double that amount after a few years. Unfortunately, with the disruptions in the world economies, it seems unlikely that there could be any guaranteed ROI for students wherever they go or whatever they study, barring a few high-demand sectors and destinations. That is the rub. Most students still live in dreamland and have expectations that are not grounded in reality or sync with the world's present economic realities.

Then you have the institutes. They are in an even worse situation without understanding the implications of the base problems. Most of them are looking for statutory protection to prevent competition, and online has hit a lot of them hard. However, most are embracing online as a competition point and have become complacent about offline return without realising that the actual problems have not been addressed. They are just facing the tip of the iceberg of disruption yet to come. That is the impossibility of them offering any viable ROI over the next 3-5 years to students leading to erosion and eventual decline of their offerings.

Economic Disruption

The disruption of jobs becoming scarcer or being offered at a significantly lower value than expected will be an absolute over the next few years as the world faces recession, re-building of core sectors, and other efforts to alleviate economic problems.

It's not that jobs will not be available. Jobs are always available. The difference is the enormous disconnect between what is expected and what is on offer, which could impact tens of millions of students. Institutes are not wholly unaware of the problem but just don't think it is a major problem - yet. Unfortunately, by the time they realise the issue's magnitude, the early movers will do well, and the others will sink or just plodder along with more hope than the chance of significant success.

The current efforts of education providers and statutory authorities toward increasing job readiness through internships are as reasonable as putting makeup on a dead body. It worked 10 years ago, but in the post-pandemic world, with the world facing tough times, you need a more innovative approach.

There is suddenly a significant interest in students moving to educational hubs in Europe and North America, which are expected to increase drastically. But here, most countries will control the flow through visa restrictions. Places like the UAE are selling themselves to great effect as alternative destinations for students, with many European and North American institutes having overseas campuses. In fact, in 2022, the UAE has become the 2nd highest destination for international students outside the USA.

How To Work With Disruptions?

The future is not bleak if efforts are made now to address the problems. The job market will evolve, but the education market is not changing fast enough. The way to go forward is:

1. Look at the most important but highly ignored skill, improving students' English skills so they have a shot at international and online opportunities. Nationalism and Jingoism have curtailed the use of English to the extent that it has harmed student prospects big time. Recently at a parent-teacher meeting, a top English medium school said their students are struggling with English.

A shocking revelation, though, is on the students' heads for not doing enough. As the world faces challenges, good English abilities will enhance job opportunities. But it has to be good English, not mediocre English. Studying in English medium does not mean good English. That is the first reality both students and institutions must urgently address, something they have totally ignored.

2. Look at the accreditation of local institutes with North American, European, or UK institutes. Accreditation is not student exchange with a hybrid model of local syllabi but certification from the Institutes in North America, Europe or the UK. And it should not be an online model but a hybrid one to ensure that it ticks all the right marks for a job. It will also be more cost-effective than a student going to these western regions, and if it can be costed at the same price as a local offering, it becomes a competitive ROI for students and job interest for corporates.

3. Look at foreign internships in North America, Europe and the UK. Although more expensive than the options given above, it is still a solid lead for getting an international job, and many good universities offer such internships. Foreign online internships are also available, though they are for more targeted subjects and the physical ones have tremendous potential for a better ROI.

The following 3-5 years are going to be challenging for institutes and students. The degree of difficulty will be dependent on the different reactions. Students always flow towards opportunities and will adjust quickly. If the education providers or Institutes do not want to become irrelevant, they have to be involved in creating those opportunities. Let us hope they have the wisdom to do so.

Also Read: India's Economy: Torn Between Chaos, Confusion And Control