India Likely To Become World's Most Populated Country In 2023 As China's Population Declines

India is anticipated to surpass the Communist powerhouse as the world's most populous nation in the coming years, according to a new estimate by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The demographic shift comes following the news of China's birth rate reaching an all-time low in 2022.

India's Population Likely To Boom

The analysis predicts that by the middle of this century, India will have a population of 1.668 billion, greater than China's 1.317 billion. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) statement came after China's economic growth hit its second-lowest level in five decades in 2022, with a meagre 3 per cent gain.

China's statistics bureau estimates that China had 1.4118 billion people in 2022, a decrease of 850,000 from 2021. The national birth rate, which was 6.77 births per 1,000 people, also reached a record low. China had roughly 9.56 million new births in the last year, down from 10.62 million in 2021, according to NBS.

China last announced a population drop in 1961.

"China and India are countries with a big population and we have ample resources in the working force. This is a strong internal dynamic for economic development," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said. He went on to say that the two countries should use their population dividends to help each other's national development and contribute more to the international community.

Updated Child Birth Policies

The increase in the number of women entering the workforce and pursuing higher education, as well as the rising cost of living, have been cited by analysts as contributing factors to the slowdown, reports Mint.

China's concern is not only a declining population, exacerbated by the decades-old "one-child policy," which was repealed in 2016 but also a rapidly ageing population. The updated policy now allows Chinese citizens to have up to three children. Every ten years, China performs a nationwide population count; the most recent was in 2020.

An official from the NBS explained that while China conducts a population sampling survey on November 1 of every year, the number of deaths for December is not known in non-nationwide census years like 2022.

According to Cai Fang, a former deputy director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the country's population peaked in 2022, which was far earlier than anticipated, and will either continue to grow negatively from 2023 or enter an era of negative growth.

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